Valuation of social impact of the implementation of investment projects!

The rules of formation and use of budget funds of the Investment Fund of the Russian Federation include as one of the criteria for selecting projects eligible to receive budget allocations from the fund is to achieve a positive social effect associated with the project [1. 5]. In the method of calculating and applying the criteria of effectiveness of regional investment projects are the following indicators of social impact: raising the employment rate of working age, raising the level of availability of modern housing, improve the environment, improving accessibility and quality of public services in transport, health, education , physical culture and sport, culture, housing and communal services [2. 2]. Thus, to achieve social impact of the investment project should contribute to solving many social problems.

Types of social impact and implementation. In assessing the social impact of the investment project should distinguish between direct and indirect forms of it. Under the direct effect is understood, is directly related to the implementation of the investment project - construction (reconstruction, modernization), designed objects and their subsequent maintenance. The indirect effect arises because tax revenue, additional investment, development, production, initiated the project. As a result, investments made directly to the project, induce an additional increase of investment in various sectors of the economy both directly in the project area, and in Russia as a whole. Indirect social effects of the project is playing, constantly increasing. Thus, obtained thanks to additional investment income is reinvested again, rising incomes mean increase in domestic consumer demand, which becomes an additional factor of economic development, create jobs, increase tax revenues. Learn more website: www.geldanlagevergleich.org!

Social effects may be as universal, arising in the implementation of any investment project, and specific, due to certain types of projects and the characteristics of the regions in which the project is implemented. In addition, the social effects can be both positive and negative.

Consider a different mechanism of positive social effects.

Create (reconstruction) of jobs. New jobs appear on the projected objects, as well as in construction during the construction works. In addition, the implementation of projects initiated creation of a significant number of jobs in associated industries, depending on the specifics of the project (for example, in the construction industry, mechanical engineering, transport, industrial and non-infrastructure projects in the territories). The effect of a specific project, obtained in the form of profits reinvested in the economy, generates a multiplier effect, the construction and operation of initiating long-term development of new and reconstruction of existing jobs in various industries.

The positive effect of job creation is expressed primarily in the expansion of employment, reduction of unemployment. The effect of reconstruction jobs shown to improve working conditions and as a consequence of better health, reduced cases of the general and occupational diseases, occupational accidents, disability population of premature and preventable mortality, increased life expectancy.

Improving living standards. Income growth and expansion of effective demand is the result of wage employment in jobs created (reconstructed) in the project (direct effect) and development of production, initiated by the project (indirect effect).

Tax revenues from the project, but in the long term tax revenues from the development of production due to reinvestment of profits. Additional tax revenues can increase government funding of education, health, culture, social policy, including welfare payments and compensation payments to the population at the local, regional, and federal levels. Thus, the increased wage employment in the public sector, creating new jobs in the social sphere, which is reflected in the level and quality of life: improved situation on the labor market and increased income from employment and social transfers to the population, increased availability and quality of services the social sphere.

The provision of public goods (services) produced directly in the project (if he is sent), in the adjacent areas, and as a result of further development of production.

Improving the environmental situation as a result of modernization, the introduction of environmental technologies. This increases the quality of the environment.

Improving health, improving the demographic situation (as a result of reduction of premature and preventable mortality, high birth rates, increasing life expectancy). These long-term effects - the overall result of improved working conditions and environmental conditions, growth of living standards, social infrastructure development, innovation in health care.

Increasing the educational and qualification level of the workforce, reducing the use of unskilled labor (if the projected (reconstructed) production of a demand for labor qualifications). This effect is particularly evident in projects aimed at the creation (development) of elements of the national innovation system. Increase vocational qualification requirements for employees is an incentive for the development of vocational education.

Optimization of migration flows. In some cases the need to attract people from other regions to meet the needs of the investment project in the workforce. Creating jobs and improving living standards in the region or further stimulate migration influx of the population, including those from the labor-surplus regions, or restrain out-migration (depending on the situation in the region of the migration situation).

Reduction of social tension in society, ensuring social stability and social support for institutional reform.

As already mentioned, the social effect can be both positive and negative. Among the possible negative social consequences of investment projects are the following:
job losses as a result of upgrading the existing production;
destruction of competing industries and as a consequence of the release of the labor force, ousting from the market of cheap goods and services;
the emergence of a local labor shortage as a result of the outflow from the neighboring regions, as well as enterprises in the region on designed objects;
environmental degradation;
the emergence of social tensions and social conflicts due to the following factors: the increase in housing density, population migration flows in densely populated areas (a similar situation may occur in sparsely populated regions, if the influx of people do not accompanied by a sufficient development of social sphere and the increased burden on existing social facilities), the appearance of modern high-paying jobs in depressed regions and in regions with low life, not accompanied by an increase in social contributions and investment earnings to the local economy, which could lead to a rigid labor market segmentation and increasing social tensions.

Assessing the social effects. Some manifestations of the social effect can be accurately measured, in other cases, can only qualitative assessments and expert opinions.

In assessing the social impact must take into account the macroeconomic and regional manifestations of it, bearing in mind that the social impact achieved at the regional level, is part of the macroeconomic effect. The scale of the regional social effect is determined not only absolute but relative and indicators that characterize the impact of the investment project on the socio-economic development of regions. Thus, the value of social impact is largely determined by socio-economic situation in the region. Thus, the effect of the introduction of new jobs will depend on their percentage of the existing regional jobs and the situation on the regional labor market.

Assessment of social impacts should include the following steps.

Stage I. Determining the relation of effects to be manifested at the macro and at the regional level, identifying the regions most vulnerable to the influence of the project.

In most cases the investment project implemented in one or more regions, respectively, the direct effect of job creation and payroll for them, tax revenues shown in the first place at the regional level, and the indirect effects are redistributed to the macro level. The effect of production, provided the project (infrastructure, the elements of the innovation system), depending on the size of the project can be observed in the region, and at the macro level.

For example, when creating a regional social infrastructure local effect produced by the services they will appear at the regional level, in the construction of objects of inter-regional or federal (university, hospital or consulting and diagnostic center under federal control, etc.) - at the macro level. The effect of the construction of a major traffic artery that crosses the vast territory, and will be reflected at the macro level, and in their respective regions.

If you are creating, say, a major pharmacological effect of the production of income products in the consumer market will manifest at the macro level, and the effect of new jobs - mostly at the regional level, the effect of tax revenue is distributed according to the proportion of payments to the federal, regional and local budgets.

Stage II. Analysis of the initial state of social and labor market in their respective regions, and forecast the trends of their development without the influence of the investment project.

As a manifestation of regional social effect depends not only on the type of project, but also on the level of socio-economic development, characterization and prediction of the labor market and social sphere are the starting point for assessing the investment project.

To do this, you should use indicators based on data from state statistical reporting, which is characterized by:
labor market conditions (employment, total unemployment, the share of unemployed looking for work 12 months. and more, the registered unemployment, involuntary part-time employment, expressed a specific gravity of workers employed part-time at the initiative of management and employees who were granted leave to initiative of the administration during the year in total employment, the proportion of working in conditions that do not meet sanitary standards);
standard of living (per capita cash income, the ratio of per capita income and a living wage; weight and number of people living below the poverty level; average monthly salary);
development of social sector (in comparison with normative or averages: rates of housing conditions, security of hospital and outpatient clinics, medical staff, educational institutions, cultural institutions, transport and communication services);
demographic (population reproduction: fertility, mortality, natural increase, the population growth, morbidity and disability, structure of population by sex and age, life expectancy);
state of the ecological situation in the region;
others are specific to particular regions and investment projects (provision of goods (services) produced on the projected production, etc.).

Stage III. Perform calculations (if impossible - the qualitative assessment) by type of social effect, the comparison with the original forecast and regional indicators, and if the magnitude of the effect of significant - and then a nation-wide indicators.

After the separation of macro-economic and regional consequences of social benefits and the analysis of the socio-economic situation and development trends in the regions where the most heavily affected impact of the project should proceed directly to the qualitative and quantitative estimates of different types of social effects.

Create (reconstruction) of jobs. The direct effect. The number of established, modernized, reconstructed jobs (as well as the number of laid-off workers due to modernization) should be indicated in the justification of the investment project. If such data are not available, the total number of employees required for the construction and operation of the project (number of laid-off workers) can be determined based on current industry standards for strength, analogous projects, model projects, experienced and expert assessments.

The indirect effect. The number of jobs, initiated the project, calculated as follows:

P = (Ixd) / C (1)

where P - the number of generated (reconstructed) jobs, and - the amount of conjugated and multiplexed investment; d - share of investments to create jobs (according to expert estimates, is about 0.8), C - average cost of entering the workplace.

Increased employment by creating new jobs is calculated as the ratio of the number of employees in new jobs to total employment in the region (with large scale project - the whole of Russia).

When calculating a reduction in unemployment should be evaluated by an expert, what proportion of jobs created may be occupied by the unemployed, taking into account professional qualification and age-sex composition of the unemployed living in the project area. Then determined by the possible reduction in the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate.

Possible release of labor from competing companies due to their ruin, and the corresponding increase in unemployment is estimated as an expert by taking into account the fact that some laid-off workers can find jobs on the projected objects.

The number of reconstructed jobs with better working conditions specified in the justification of the project or determined by an expert.

Improving living standards. The direct effect. The average salary for generated (reconstructed) jobs by category of personnel indicated in the justification of the project or determined by an expert, taking into account the average wage prevailing in the relevant industry (region), and the specifics of the project.

Next, the ratio between the average wage of the project and the corresponding average for the industry and region, calculated as the total annual income of staff, its relationship with monetary income of the population at the regional (or macro) level, the estimated increase in effective demand. Aggregate annual income of staff is calculated by the formula:

D = Σ x Chi Zi x 12 (2)

where D - the total annual income of staff; Zi - the average monthly salary i-th category of personnel, Chi - number of i-th category of personnel.

The indirect effect. Rising incomes of the population employed in jobs that are created as a result of reinvesting the proceeds, estimated from the average level of wages.

By an expert estimated the share of tax payments to the budgets of all levels, which can be used to finance social spending, including education, health, culture, social policy, including welfare payments and compensation payments to the population at the local, regional, and federal levels.